Weather Trends: September 2013
The National Retail Federation definition of September 2013 shifts the month one week later in the calendar when compared to 2012. This shift introduces a significant cooler bias in the forecast. Therefore, while the nation on a year-on-year basis trends cooler, most of that will be due to a calendar shift and not a change in the weather. Conditions are expected to be similar to 2012 when the shift is removed. There looks to be a bit of a lull in hurricane activity heading into the early part of the month in the Atlantic, but activity is expected to pick up during the second half of the month. The eastern Pacific, however, looks to be quite active with a storm or two possibly bringing heavy rain, and possibly flash flooding, all the way into the Southwest U.S. Typical fall back-to-school categories will do well earlier in the month. Although year-on-year demand for summer categories will be softer, the forecast still points towards a warmer than normal scenario in the west. Thus, typical summer categories will once again have an extended season in this region.
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